Abstract

This edited volume focuses on the changing regional security dynamics of Southeast Asia within the context of the U.S.-China strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific. On the one hand, China’s growing influence and assertive behavior in the South China Sea and the Archipelago region are the main concerns of these countries. On the other hand, Southeast Asian countries are skeptical—if not hesitant—with the formation of new mini-lateral frameworks and emerging institutional cooperation such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and AUKUS.

In this highly competitive strategic environment, these countries prefer to position themselves in a flexible mode of sometimes leaning toward the United States or China based on a nuanced balance of maintaining both strategic autonomy and opportunities that manifest in the region.

In line with this flexible mode of engagement, Southeast Asian countries prefer to eschew an explicitly pro-position vis-à-vis the United States or China, cognizant of the turbulence ahead due to the deepening of U.S.–China strategic competition—this, despite the fact that freedom of navigation and a rule-based international order is much desired by Southeast Asian countries to establish and maintain peace and stability in the region.

The strategic value of Southeast Asia has much significance to the deepening U.S.–China strategic competition. In this book, chapters examine the behavior, perspectives, and strategy of Southeast Asian countries toward the U.S.–China strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific.

3 KEY TAKEAWAYS

Heterogeneity of the Region

Southeast Asia is highly diverse. For instance, the Philippines is open to minilateral relationships, while Singapore is ultra-developed. Vietnam, as a socialist state, maintains a complex yet sometimes synergistic relationship with China. This diversity creates significant complexity in how countries view their economic prosperity, security, and alignments.

Reading the Tea Leaves

High-level speeches often claim neutrality between the U.S. and China, but surveys—like those from the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies—reveal different perspectives. These surveys indicate concerns about China’s encroaching influence and what it means for the region’s autonomy. Southeast Asian nations generally welcome initiatives like the Quad and AUKUS for their public good contributions and deterrent effects, even those with complicated relationships with China.

Strategic Autonomy

Countries in the region are seeking strategic autonomy. They aim to navigate their foreign policies independently while engaging with major powers. For example, Vietnam has strengthened ties with the U.S. through high-level visits and partnerships, while also engaging with China. Similarly, the Philippines is pursuing multilateral relationships with countries like Australia, Japan, and the U.S. to balance China’s influence.

Overall, these nations desire to maintain their decision-making independence in economic and security matters while recognizing the necessity of engaging with China for their economic prosperity.

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