Extract from my talk with Studio Asia about Japan’s military transformation

In terms of defense spending, Japan has committed to reaching 2% of GDP to build its defense capacity. This budget increase could entail various enhancements, such as improving maritime domain awareness, developing over-the-horizon radar capabilities, advancing satellite technologies, and strengthening cybersecurity skills. These priorities are outlined in the Ministry of Defense’s white papers, which detail Japan’s objectives for its defense budget.

The reason behind this commitment is simple: Japan aims to achieve total domain awareness to address the increasing number of missile tests from North Korea. This includes monitoring not only the quantity but also the quality of missiles launched into the Sea of Japan and over Japan. A comprehensive understanding of North Korea’s nuclear weapons facilities is essential for preventing proliferation.

China also represents a significant area of concern for Japan. The majority of China’s security assets and offensive capabilities are concentrated along its east coast, particularly across the Taiwan Strait. Japan seeks to understand how these assets are deployed and their potential use in conflicts, particularly regarding the Senkaku Islands or, in a worst-case scenario, a conflict involving Taiwan. This understanding is crucial for Japan’s defense strategy, especially in collaboration with U.S. bases in Okinawa and throughout the Japanese archipelago.

Recently, discussions have emerged about acquiring preemptive strike capabilities, primarily aimed at deterring North Korea. Given the uncertainty surrounding Japan’s ability to defend against a mass attack from North Korea, preemptive capabilities may serve as a more effective deterrent. However, these capabilities are not currently intended for use in a conflict with China.

Regarding the structure of the defense budget, there has not yet been a qualitative change in Japan’s arms procurement process. To meet the 2% target, the government is likely to combine various budgets, such as the Coast Guard budget, to increase overall defense spending. This approach may also include housing salaries and ammunition costs within the defense budget.

It remains to be seen how the 2% allocation will be utilized and whether there will be significant changes in Japan’s procurement processes and the deployment of defense capabilities. We may also see greater burden-sharing between the United States and Japan, with Japan providing comprehensive domain awareness and intelligence to its partners to counter aggressive behavior from regional states.

My YouTube Playlist on Japan and the Indo-Pacific

My Audio Playlist on Japan and the Indo-Pacific

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